The number of long-term residential care beds for older people in Ireland will need to be increased by at least 61% and the number of short-term residential care beds by at least 72% by 2040, according to the latest projections by the ESRI.
In addition, home support hours will need to be increased by at least 57% by 2040, to meet the demands of our growing and ageing population.
The report, to project future capacity requirements for older people, was produced by Brendan Walsh and Theano Kakoulidou of the ESRI. on behalf of the Department of Health.
It says the population of Ireland aged 65 years and over is projected to increase from 0.78 million to over 1.3 million between 2022 and 2040, with the overall proportion of the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 15% to 21%. Additionally, the population aged 85 years and over is projected to more than double between 2022 and 2040.
The older age groups tend to use healthcare services more frequently and for longer durations and are significant users of long-term residential care and home support.
The report says that short stay bed capacity requirements are projected to increase from 3,745 beds in 2022 to between 6,431 beds and 7,265 beds by 2040, equivalent to average annual growth of 3.0 to 3.7 per cent. Long stay bed capacity requirements are projected to increase from 29,579 beds in 2022 to between 47,588 beds and 53,266 beds by 2040, equivalent to average annual growth of 2.7 to 3.3 per cent.
Home support hour requirements are projected to increase from 28.7 million hours annually in 2022 to between 44.9 million and 54.9 million hours by 2040, equivalent to average annual growth of 2.5 to 3.7 per cent.
“Healthy ageing and new care models could moderate, but not offset, the impact on the demand and capacity requirements driven by this population ageing effect. Consequently, policies will inevitably be required to develop effective financing, workforce and infrastructure planning to help deliver the additional LTRC and home support to the older population,” says the report.
It makes the point that while the model of provision was not examined explicitly in this report, it was important to acknowledge that the majority of LTRC and home support services were provided by the private sector. “This report does not consider the role of private care providers when estimating LTRC bed capacity and home support hour requirements. However, the current context of care provision needs to be acknowledged by policymakers when using results from these analyses to inform capacity, workforce and infrastructure planning, as policies needed to develop public (HSE) capacity, workforce and infrastructure may differ from policies needed to encourage more private investment and provision.”
The Capacity Review has identified the need for more detailed consideration of the capacity requirements for a number of areas of healthcare delivery. In 2025 and 2026, the Joint Research Programme will examine Occupancy Rates, Capacity Requirements For Short-Stay, Rehab and Day Centre Care Services and Capacity Requirements For Critical Care.
Health Minister, Jennifer Carroll MacNeill said the report would help the Department to plan better and be better prepared to respond to the challenges it faces in meeting the needs of our growing and ageing population.
“The 2025 Programme for Government promises to build more public nursing home beds, create a homecare scheme to help people stay in their homes longer, and increase home care hours,” she said.
“We are already making progress in increasing both residential care capacity and home support hours for our older population. This is shown by the €4 million allocated in Budget 2025 to staff and open 615 new community beds. The Department of Health and the HSE are also working on a new Long-Term Residential Care Additional Capacity Plan, to be published in 2025.
“The 2025 budget for home support is the largest ever at around €838 million, allowing us to increase home support hours to about 24.3 million, helping around 60,000 people by te end of the year. “
Minister for Older People and Housing, Kieran O’Donnell said it was evident that significant action would be required by Government to ensure that the appropriate care services were available for our older population and to deliver on Programme for Government, Sláintecare, and Project Ireland 2040 commitments. “I am absolutely committed to ensuring that this capacity planning is advanced in 2025,” he said
